Are Arab moves in Syria paving the way for a greater China presence?
SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
…Analysts said Washington’s Arab allies had good reason to take the initiative on Syria.
“As well as the changing circumstances inside Syria, there are also other factors to consider. Constraining Iranian influence is one, especially given its expansion as a result of the war and the assistance it has given it over the past decade. But there are also others too. One is the wider changes in the region, including American allies’ uncertainty about Washington’s reliability,” said Guy Burton, an adjunct professor of international relations at Vesalius College in Brussels.
“That has encouraged regional state actors to take matters into their own hands more in the past few years,” he said.
At the same time, that has to be counterbalanced with those same actors arguably biting off more than they could chew – for example the Saudis and the UAE in Yemen – and a wish to retrench, he said.
“But if that is going to happen, they need to dampen down any uncertainties in the neighbourhood. Engaging Assad is therefore one way to do this,” Burton said.
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With little sign so far that the Gulf Arab states are going to make substantial investments, and the West clearly opposed to doing business with the Assad regime, “that leaves the field for the Chinese”, said Burton, who is also author of the 2020 book China and Middle East Conflicts.
He said it was important for Arab states in the Levant to attract Chinese funds because of the poor state of their economies and the lack of domestic capital. It also has the advantage of diversifying foreign direct investment as well, so that they don’t become too reliant on the West or the Gulf states.
“Against this though, I’d argue that as with Syria, these countries need China more than the other way around. While Chinese officials have indicated interest in some of the proposed projects, the fact remains that the bulk of Chinese trade and investment is in the richer and politically more stable parts of the Arab world, in the Gulf and in Saudi Arabia and the UAE especially,” Burton said.
