How China’s Mid-East Policy May Change After Ukraine War
INTERREGIONAL FOR STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
China’s footprint in the Middle East is expanding, and there is little reason to think that will change as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine. In some ways, the war may serve to enhance its sphere of influence, while also hampering it in other ways.
Although the war has most directly affected Ukraine and its people, constantly exposing them to death, physical destruction, and an unfolding humanitarian/refugee crisis, it has also had wider repercussions for both neighboring countries and the world at large.
Among such consequences are rising energy prices witnessed around the globe. Between December 2021 and March 2022, oil prices jumped from around $70 to $120 per barrel, caused in part by Western sanctions against Russia. This decision ultimately benefited oil and gas producers in the Gulf by providing them with more revenue. It has also meant less wheat exports and skyrocketing prices across the board (up by a third since the start of the year), which will affect countries that rely on such products, like Egypt.
Rising energy prices and grain scarcity also spell trouble for China, and are perhaps the most immediate challenges presently facing this nation.
As the world’s second largest economy, China is heavily reliant on oil and gas imports, much of which comes from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Oman. Additionally, while rice is one of the nation’s staple foods, Chinese consumption and food security demands have prompted it to increase its imports.
At the same time, however, China has been able to offset the pressure of rising prices.
