Российский антипример: чем обернется для Китая война в Украине [Russian anti-example: how the war in Ukraine will turn out for China]
TRT RUSSIAN
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As Guy Burton, associate professor at Vesalius College (Brussels) , told TRT in Russian , China was somewhat taken by surprise by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “What was interesting was seeing the language that the Chinese were using last week. A foreign ministry spokeswoman resorted to the standard line that the West had contributed to the crisis prior to the invasion, but when it came to Friday's UN vote condemning Russia and demanding its withdrawal, China abstained. This is hardly a sign of strong support, ”the analyst argues.
At the same time, Burton expressed confidence that Beijing is closely following the Russian invasion for a number of reasons. “Firstly, it should be noted the international reaction that it caused,” the analyst explained. “If or when he tries to do something similar with Taiwan, he will not act as clumsily as Moscow.” This means for Beijing the need to tighten up its casus belli (formal casus belli) so that it does not look as openly selfish as the Russian leadership used to, the expert noted.
In addition, Burton believes that the PRC will learn military lessons in terms of building up forces and ensuring that they are adequately supplied for a long standoff. “According to some observers, the Russian build-up of forces on the borders meant that they used up their energy even before they began to move,” the analyst noted. “In this regard, the Chinese (along with the Western military) are probably taking note of how the Russians are acting in order to reconsider any plans for Taiwan.”
Given the misguided view of the Russian authorities that many Ukrainians would welcome the idea of deploying Russian troops to Ukraine, this could force Beijing to rethink how best to change public attitudes in Taiwan ahead of time, Burton admitted.
“I doubt that the Chinese want to get into an extremely hostile environment in which the entire population is opposed to their presence. Even if they take the island, they may well face continued occupation and bloody rebellion,” the source explained to TRT in Russian.
Relationship asymmetry
Asked if recent events could deepen Russia's dependence on China, Burton drew attention to a podcast for Spectator magazine, which recently featured Russian expert Alexander Gabuev. According to its assessments, the economic relations between China and Russia are very complementary, given Russia's oil and gas production and China's growing energy needs. But there is an asymmetry between them: Russia needs Chinese purchases more than China needs Russian supplies.
Gabuev notes that, at the same time, the asymmetry does not yet look excessive: it just meets the interests of China a little more than Russia. According to these estimates, under the current trajectory, in 10-15 years, this could lead to China having a significantly greater influence on Russia. Burton notes that the corresponding expert forecast was made before the start of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And now the situation is accelerating and showing great shifts. Both in politics and economics.
“The time frame for this could well have narrowed. Especially if the Russian invasion drags on and sanctions kick in, leaving Putin less time and space to choose an alternative path,” the TRT source concluded in Russian.
