Может ли на Ближнем Востоке разгореться большая война [Could a big war break out in the Middle East?]
RBC NEWS
On January 17, Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it was recalling its ambassador from Iran in response to Tehran's attack on Pakistani territory. “We have conveyed to the Iranian government that Pakistan has decided to recall its ambassador from Iran and that the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan, who is currently on a visit to Iran, may not return for now,” the ministry said. Pakistan has also decided to suspend all high-level visits that were planned with Iran in the coming days.
This was preceded by a series of attacks by Iranian armed forces on neighboring countries - Pakistan, Syria and Iraq.
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Lancaster University researcher Guy Burton noted that the US and Iranian strikes are common in their mutual disregard for alternative, more legal and institutional methods. “Instead of dealing with these non-state actors, for example by imposing sanctions, both resort to the use of force. It is also possible that Tehran hopes that the United States and the West will react more restrainedly to its strikes on Iraq, Syria and Pakistan due to its own actions in Yemen,” he told RBC.
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According to Burton, Iran is already experiencing significant economic pressure, and prolongation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict could, in addition, lead to its further expansion and growth of opposition sentiments within the country. The US is also not interested in getting bogged down in another conflict in the Middle East with multi-year costs, as was the case after the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. “Even Israel will probably not welcome the expansion of the current fighting on two or more fronts, especially if the fighting on them becomes protracted,” the expert suggested.
Drawing more and more regional and global players into the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as well as their direct confrontation, will not only entail devastating consequences, but will also make it much more difficult to resolve the crisis, Burton warned. However, non-state actors, such as the Yemeni Houthis and the Lebanese Hezbollah, on the contrary, are interested in further escalation, because then they will receive even more resources from their allies “to continue the fight.”
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