Alternative Diplomacy: Will China Help Saudi-Israeli Dialogue?

TRT RUSSIAN

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So far, the Israeli authorities have not sent a formal request to China to mediate in a dialogue with Riyadh, Guy Burton, an associate professor at Vesalius College (Brussels), said in a conversation with TRT Russian . “However, positive language can be used at the meeting of senior officials and subsequently statements of mutual interests, the desire for regional stability and recognition can be made, through which normalization with Saudi Arabia can be formulated,” the expert admitted.

Whether the PRC will offer the parties to conduct a dialogue on their own or will actively engage in this process is another question, Burton notes. According to him, the chances of success in this dossier do not look so tangible. “If you look at the Iran-Saudi deal that was supported by China, you will see that it was concluded after two years of negotiations previously mediated by Oman and Iraq,” the analyst recalls. He notes that Beijing got involved in this dialogue not at the problematic early stages, but already during the active phase.

“One of the reasons why such negotiations may not succeed is that in the past few years the wind that blew on the sails of the Abraham Accords has weakened,” Burton said. “With the exception of the UAE, they have not brought significant improvements to their Arab signatories.”

In addition, the interlocutor of TRT Russian adds: Saudi Arabia knows how hard both Israel and the United States are seeking to normalize contacts. This gives the kingdom significant leverage. “If tomorrow they reach an agreement with Israel, all these levers will be lost,” Burton concludes.

"Sign of Weakness"

The possible involvement of China in the dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Israel will cause discontent in the US leadership "on a personal and individual level," the expert argues. “But ultimately it will be in line with their long-term and broader goals in the region,” Burton said. “The US is pushing for a normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations, so while they may lose mediation prestige, I'm sure some administration officials will be able to look at it more broadly.”

Despite all the maneuvers of Beijing and Washington, both players share some common concerns about the Middle East, according to the TRT Russian interlocutor.

“Ultimately, any normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations mediated by China will raise China's prestige and be touted as a sign of American weakness. Nevertheless, both the Saudis and the Israelis have been and will remain strong allies of the United States, ”the expert states. One need only look at the contacts between US and Israeli officials in recent weeks, he said: despite criticism of judicial reform, the Biden administration has not taken any action to prevent it.

“When the changes were passed in the Knesset (about the legal system. - TRT in Russian), the United States announced that American aid to Israel would not undergo adjustments. In short, the basic principles remain,” Burton summed up.

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