Beyond the rhetoric, an Iran-US war is far from certain

CHINA.ORG.CN

On July 1, Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif announced the country had breached the limit of stockpiled uranium allowed under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an action posing a direct challenge to the U.S. government's opposition of Iran's nuclear program. 

The question then is: how did this happen, and how might it end?

First, tensions have been a prominent feature of U.S.-Iranian relations for decades, embroiling its nuclear program for much of that time. In 2002 an opposition group revealed details of a number of previously undeclared nuclear installations. A decade of on-off talks and international sanctions ensued, reflecting strong distrust between Iran and the international community. 

Despite this, in 2015, Iran and the P5+1 – the five UN Security Council members (U.S., Britain, France, Russia and China) and Germany – signed the JCPOA. In exchange for halting its nuclear program and exposing itself to rigorous scrutiny by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran won relief from international sanctions and the opportunity to improve its weakened economy.

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