China in the Middle East: Friends in Need and Deed?
RUSI COMMENTARY
Recent media coverage has suggested that China may be about to plough $400 billion worth of investments into Iran. American policymakers have responded with alarm, owing to a growing perception of China as a global threat, and the Middle East as one theatre of a worldwide confrontation. Alongside China’s willingness to cooperate with US adversaries, others have pointed to China’s development of a multipurpose port in Djibouti, from which it is able to base warships.
In truth, China’s regional objectives and their outcomes are somewhat uncertain. Although China has important ties with Iran and has a growing naval presence in the Horn of Africa, they exist alongside other regional ties and relations, including strong commercial interests with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel – all prominent rivals to Iran.
So far, China has managed to balance those relations. It has done so by largely avoiding any direct involvement in regional confrontations. In the Gulf dispute between Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, it has stood apart. In Libya, where the conflict is finely balanced, it has similarly avoided choosing sides. But in Syria it has effectively backed the government in Damascus, while in Yemen its support for the UN-recognised government implies tacit acceptance of its Saudi patron.
Behaving in this fashion casts China more as a ‘shirker’ than a ‘supporter’ or ‘spoiler’ when it comes to its current behaviour as an emerging power. But as I point out in my new book, China and Middle East Conflicts, it has also occupied the other roles in the region as well.
