Between Washington and Beijing: The Gulf Region in the New Cold War
GULF INTERNATIONAL FORUM
Tensions between the United States and China are escalating. Political and economic animosity between the two nations steadily increased during the presidency of Donald Trump, and there has been no sign that this course will change under the Biden administration. With many signs pointing to a renewed “Cold War” between Washington and Beijing, other nations might find themselves caught in the middle. This has been especially true of the Gulf region, which maintains close political and military ties with America but simultaneously close commercial ties with China.
Over the past decade, China’s relationship with nearly all Gulf states has rapidly improved in many areas: political ties, energy sales, foreign investment, tech and AI, and even arms purchases. China’s increased interest in the Middle East has come at a time when the U.S. has become less interested in the region and more concerned with “grand strategy” challenges from Russia and China, as well as cyberattacks and interference from both states in U.S. domestic affairs. At the same time, the Gulf as a whole seems increasingly interested in better relations with China as a reliable and rich trade partner.
Gulf states’ relations with China differ. Iran, for instance, is America’s most prominent adversary in the Middle East, and views good relations with China and Russia as an essential counterbalance to the United States. Most of the GCC states, as well as Iraq, view China as a good source of investment and a reliable customer for their oil, a relationship they strive to protect without endangering their security and defense relations with Washington – a relationship underlined by the presence of nearly 45,000 American soldiers in the Gulf.
The recent rise in tensions between the U.S. and China may put the Sino-Gulf or U.S.-Gulf relations to a new test. Most of the Gulf states will wish to preserve good relations with both states and remain neutral in the new international order being framed by the ongoing tension. Is that possible? In the competition between the United States and China, what is at stake for the Gulf states? In what sectors will China and the U.S. compete in the Gulf? Finally, if each of the Gulf states were forced to choose between Washington and Beijing, which sides would they take?
Featured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Professor Jonathan Fulton, Camille Lons, Jacopo Scita, and Professor Guy Burton.
