The Gulf States and US-China Rivalry: Hedging Their Bets
INSIDE ARABIA
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According to Guy Burton, adjunct professor at the Brussels-based Vesalius College and visiting fellow at Lancaster University, it is still unclear what has happened at the port near Abu Dhabi since the news first broke. Although the Emiratis halted work, we don’t know whether this was previously agreed upon and the UAE was just caught by US officials or if the construction was taking place without Emirati approval, which, if true, would be a shocking state of affairs.
For a long time, China avoided deploying its armed forces outside its territory. Thus far, it has only established one military base, located in Djibouti, which is tasked with suppressing piracy in the Horn of Africa region.
Therefore, having a military installation in the Gulf would be quite a step up for China, as it could also bring Beijing closer to the Gulf’s problems, especially those between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In Burton’s opinion, it’s not entirely clear whether China wants to become embroiled in those differences.
“Although it has cultivated both sides and encouraged the two to talk to each other […] it’s hard to see what benefit it can get from inserting itself directly between them, or even taking on an active role to resolve their differences,” he told Inside Arabia. Any failure regarding the mediation would certainly damage China’s prestige.
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Still, according to Dr. Arduino, the decades-old policy of non-interference will not shield Beijing from getting entangled in the Middle East’s conflicts. Beijing will shape its policy according to what he likes to call “balanced vagueness,” placing bets on all sides. There is still a policy of non-alignment in the region, but it differs from its previous stance of non-interference.
The same could be said for many Middle Eastern countries when it comes to China, observes Dr. Burton. He says the relationship is a form of hedging: where a government tries to spread its bets and maximize benefits while minimizing risk by being as friendly as possible and avoiding confrontation.
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It seems that the current state of relations between the US and Gulf nations is determined by mutual uncertainty and the absence of commitments, where both sides are exploring secondary options. While Gulf states have shown a willingness to operate independently and not always in line with US interests, Burton views this primarily in the light of the changing Middle East, which goes beyond US goals or capacity.
