More Latent than Actual: The Abraham Accords at One
INTERNATIONAL POLICY DIGEST
It has now been a year since the so-called Abraham Accords which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, were announced. But while the move was one of the most significant developments in the Middle East during 2020, its impact remains more latent than actual, both in the economic sphere as well as on regional security matters like Iran and Palestine.
Part of the reason for the limited effect has been the short period of time that has passed since Israel, the UAE and Bahrain signed the deal on the White House lawn on September 15 of last year. While there has been a movement of people, the dispatch of ambassadors and the opening of embassies, more substantive results have yet to fully transpire. Furthermore, of the countries involved, only two – Israel and the UAE – have made the greatest advance.
Yet even that must be qualified. At a Wilson Center event to celebrate the agreement this week, Yousef Al Otaiba, the UAE’s ambassador to the U.S., said that relations between the two countries were only “skimming the surface.” For example, although clandestine trade between Israel and the UAE existed before, the volume of trade rose from $190 million in 2020 to $523 million in the first six months of 2021. But it could potentially grow further: this week reports in Bloomberg and Reuters have suggested that trade between the two could reach $1 trillion within 10 years.
