Israel-Gaza conflict spillover risk rises as attacks by non-state actors like Houthi, Hezbollah put diplomacy ‘to the test’
SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
Israel’s relentless Gaza offensive has prompted a slew of attacks by Iran-backed militias, straining diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict
In the US’ absence, analysts say Egypt and the UAE are most likely to lead negotiations, but the lack of Palestinian statehood could be a deal-breaker
With Israel showing no sign of de-escalating its military campaign in Gaza, hopes are fading that the conflict can continue to be contained by the unprecedented levels of diplomatic coordination between rival Middle Eastern powers that has been seen so far.
The region’s three main power groupings – broadly comprising Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates; Iran and aligned non-state militias in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen; and Qatar and Turkey – have closely communicated since the Israel-Gaza war broke out on October 7, building on a reconciliatory trend of recent years.
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“There’s a sense among Arab leaders that the Americans are not as reliable any more, that they’re not as omnipotent, that they need to build their connections and ties with other outside actors like the Chinese and Russia – not necessarily to counter the US, but just as an insurance policy,” said Guy Burton, an independent political analyst who has previously taught international relations at universities in Belgium, Iraq, Malaysia and the UAE.
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Egypt and the UAE are most likely to assume the lead diplomatic role in negotiations, Burton said, as neither has downgraded its diplomatic relations with Israel since the outbreak of the war – unlike Jordan, which has recalled its ambassador, and Saudi Arabia, which has frozen talks with the US on normalising ties with the Jewish-majority state.
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“It’s very hard to see that, given the domestic nature of American politics with a relatively weak president, divided Congress, strong influence of the Israel lobby, and the upcoming [presidential] election, which is going to distract attention and also may even give space for the Israel lobby to put pressure on politicians to demonstrate their support for Israel,” Burton said.
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