Why Brazil-Middle East relations will not change substantially under Lula 2.0

TRENDS RESEARCH AND ADVISORY

Now that Brazil has elected Luis Inácio Lula da Silva as its next president, will it herald a change in the country’s foreign policy, particularly in relation to the Middle East? While some of his supporters at home and abroad would like to see him reset the country’s foreign policy and adopt a similarly activist approach to the version he pursued during his first presidency in 2003-2010, it is unlikely that will happen.

Although Lula sought a prominent role for Brazil in the region’s politics – in particular as a mediator of conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and between Iran and the international community over its nuclear program – it is unlikely he will be able to do anything similar this time around. The brutal fact is that structural factors at home and abroad are likely to constrain Lula’s ambitions. In short, he is more likely to follow the direction taken by his election rival and predecessor, President Jair Bolsonaro, who also found his own efforts to chart a different path curtailed.

Yet, even if Lula is unable to make dramatic changes, Brazil’s role in the Middle East could potentially become more important in the coming years, both as a destination for investment by Gulf states and as a vital source of commodities, as the issue of food security becomes more salient. Indeed, in the case of the latter, food security could be the means by which Brazil’s position in the Middle East is strengthened – a goal that Lula has long pursued.

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