Does Abraham Accord Mark a Middle Eastern Paradigm Shift or is It Gulf States' Short-Term Strategy?
SPUTNIK NEWS
…The Abraham Accord is not a game-changer for the troublesome Middle East region, argues Guy Burton, a visiting fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre.
"The US and Israel are playing up these agreements as a sign that peace is close to being achieved in the Middle East and that Israel is becoming accepted by the Arab world", Burton notes, adding that the deal is unlikely to pacify the Middle East, as many pressing issues still remain unresolved.
He refers to the Trump administration's attempts to press on and resolve the Gulf dispute between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain on one side and Qatar on the other, suggesting that "if that did happen, it would certainly mean more in terms of peace than these agreements with Israel".
Burton also touches upon the Israeli debate with Palestinian Arabs, which also has yet to be settled. Previously, Arab countries cited the establishment of a Palestinian state as an obligatory condition for normalising ties with the Jewish state.
"Looking at the wider Arab world and Israel, I think that Israel's inroads to these Gulf states has been helped a lot by the relative irrelevance of the Palestinian question for these countries' rulers and their decision overstates things", the scholar presumes. "For the past 18 years Arab leaders talked about the Arab Peace Initiative as the basis for talks between Israel and the Palestinians. But it's notable that they've never really pushed for it in practice and only used it as a rhetorical device".
Burton does not rule out that one or two Gulf kingdoms will follow the UAE and Bahrain's suit, naming Oman as the most probable candidate for signing a peace pact with Israel: "Some of the language that Oman's government has used in the past week suggests a shift", the scholar elaborates.
"Having historically been neutral, the country is now a bit more vulnerable economically, owing to the pandemic", he stresses. "They need a financial injection and I can see their neighbours - like the UAE - offering it with conditions that they don't criticise the deal at the very least".
…Guy Burton also doubts that the deal will affect US voters' behaviour: "Foreign policy rarely determines elections", he remarks. "That said it may shore up some of his supporters who might have been wavering, especially on the evangelical wing".
