Emerging Powers and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The Case of Brazil and Venezuela
ISSAM FARES INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF BEIRUT
What are the prospects of new rising powers to play a role in the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? At present the possibility of direct talks leading to a final settlement of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians looks far from promising. Negotiations between the two sides have been at a standstill since September 2010, when the two sides briefly met under US sponsorship. Expectations had been high that the US would once again take a leading role as a mediator between the two sides, a self-appointed role that it has taken on at regular intervals since Israel and the Palestinians initially committed themselves to working out their differences following the signing of the Oslo accords in 1993. Following his election in late 2008, there was hope that the new US president, Barack Obama, might be able to broker talks between the two. Much of this expectation was based on a mistaken belief that Obama would be cooler towards Israel than his predecessor had been and that he was determined to invest sufficient capital to find an agreement amenable to both sides.
Obama’s supposed advantage as the principal interlocutor in the international community regarding the conflict owes much to the strong US presence, both globally and in the region since the end of the Cold War. It is also a position which arguably received broad support from the international state system in the form of the UN, which endorsed the Oslo accords and process. However, against this may be detected a shift, both in the international community’s position in relation to the conflict and increasing frustration with the US role. This has overlapped with changes in international relations more generally, namely from a US-dominated unipolar world during the 1990s to a more multipolar one over the last decade. Increasingly, newer and more visible powers appear to be on the rise both at a global and regional level, including China, Brazil, India and Russia outside the region, along with others within the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and Qatar.
Does this apparent shift in international relations mean that the American domination on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is coming to an end? Can these new state actors offer alternative directions which might contribute towards the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? What would be the nature of that engagement? Given that particular actors like the US and UN have been at the forefront of what is looking increasingly like a failed process, what are the prospects of new and emerging powers from the global south offering new ways forward to a final, lasting, and just settlement?
